Euro 2020 Group Stage 1

It is strange to be talking about Euro 2020 when we are in 2021 but it helps to keep your boredom at bay for a month. Like league results across the continent, do expect some surprise results. Firstly, let's look at the groups, the teams and their FIFA rankings in 2021 (in bracket):

Group A - Italy (7), Switzerland (13), Turkey (29), Wales (17).

Group B - Belgium (1), Denmark (10), Finland (54), Russia (38).

Group C - Austria (23), Netherlands (16), North Macedonia (62), Ukraine (24).

Group D - Croatia (14), Czech Republic (40), England (4), Scotland (44).

Group E - Poland (21), Slovakia (36), Spain (6), Sweden (18).

Group F - France (2), Germany (12), Hungary (37), Portugal (5).

Now the latest bookmakers' odds (various bookmakers have different odds) for the favourites are:

England at 4/1 (20%), France 5/1 (17%), Belgium 13/2 (13%), Spain 7/1 (13%), Italy 8/1 (11%), Germany 8/1 (11%), Portugal 10/1 (9%), Holland 12/1 (8%), Denmark 25/1 (4%) and Croatia 30/1 (3%).

Some other reports suggested different top ten:

1) France, 2) Germany, 3) Portugal, 4) Spain, 5) England, 6) Belgium, 7) Netherlands, 8) Italy, 9) Croatia, 10) Denmark. 

In every tournament there are dark horses such as Denmark who won the 1992 edition in fairy tale fashion as they did not even originally qualified for the tournament and did so only due to the disqualification of Yugoslavia. What you cannot ignore is pedigree. France were the 2018 World Cup winner with Croatia who finished second, Belgium third and England fourth. Portugal beat France 1-0 in the 2016 Euro with Germany and Wales in the semis. Spain were World Cup winners in 2010. Scotland, Slovakia, Hungary and North Macedonia entered by winning their pay-off rounds. Do you know where is North Macedonia? 

During qualifications England won Group A and scored 37 goals with Harry Kane topping the goal chart with 12 goals. Czech Republic were runners up. Ukraine won Group B ahead of Portugal. Germany top Group C followed by the Netherlands. Switzerland won Group D ahead of Denmark. Croatia were winners of Group E ahead of Wales. Spain won Group F followed by Sweden. Group G was won by Poland with Austria second. France won Group H and Turkey were second. Belgium and Russia were (1) and (2) from Group I. Finally, Italy and Finland qualified from Group J. Do not over read this as during qualification the league season was ongoing and there were injuries here and there. Qualification form and tournament form is not the same.

Italy are 4 time World Cup champions but have not been very good for sometime. Manager Roberto Mancini (ex Man City manager) has built his team well since their failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. They are on a 26 match unbeaten run, the second longest streak in their illustrious history. They have a highly experienced defence led by veterans Chiellini and Bonucci with Donnarumma a fine goalie. Immobile and Belotti will lead the search for goals. Their true strength lies in midfield where Chelsea's Jorginho holds the fort and the wings with players like Insigne who may be their most talented, Chiesa, Pelligrini and Veratti. Italy are not big favourites but they aim to surprise. Big outside favourites to me.

Croatia surprised many in the last World Cup but they have dropped a notch since then. Modric is now 35, Rakitic 33 and Perisic 32 but often capable of playing well as they have a stream of players who ply their trade around the continent such as Chelsea's Kovacic and Inter's Brozovic. Very experience team and cannot be underestimated but not strong challengers either.

Netherlands have a good squad but will sorely missed Virgil Van Dijk like Liverpool did. Ronald Koeman left to join Barcelona and Dutch legend Frank De Boer took over but he has failed in various roles at club level. They have familiar names playing across Europe and you will be very familiar with names like De Ligt, Wijnaldum, Ake, Krul, Blind, Van Aanholt, Van De Beek, Frenkie De Jong, Depay. The Dutch are technically very good but can he raise their game? They also have a history of self imploding like France. I think they will have a fine run. 

Belgium are called the Red Devils and they have a golden generation but have often under-performed at the biggest stage. Roberto Martinez seemed to have gelled the team. They have strength in depth and you will know most of their players from the big leagues around Europe. Thibaut Courtois, Jan Vertonghen, Alderweireld, Vermaelen, Meunier, Castagne, De Bruyne, Tielemans, Praet, Mertens, Witsel, Lukaku, Benteke, Trossard, Hazard, Batshuayi. If they play to their potential, they can sparkle. This could be their huge chance. Must be one of the huge favourites. 

Spain were quite untouchable at their peak with Xavi and Iniesta running the show some years back. It coincided naturally when Barcelona and Real Madrid ruled Europe. They are still an interesting side with lots of talents like Jordi Alba, Laporte (who just switched allegiance from France to Spain), Azpilicueta, Llorente, Busquets, Thiago, Rodri, Morata, Ferran Torres, Traore. Their style is quite unmistakable with the tempo of Flamenco and grace of a matador. Their FIFA ranking fell from first to sixth but do not read too much into this ranking. Strong dark horse with good chance but might not win this tournament yet. 

Portugal are the defending champions having won the last one. They were not as exciting the last time or entertaining and Ronaldo is aging but despite his age he is physically still on top of his game and capable of making things happen even as he has become a wee bit slower. How about Bruno Fernandes and Bernard Silva who have been outstanding. Ruben Dias was just named EPL FWA FOTY and he holds the fort. Others are Ruben Neves, Andre Silva, Joao Felix and Diogo Jota easily mean you could not discount them mounting a strong challenge as they are all very crafty and smart players. I won't be surprised if they go to the semis or final yet again. Portugal are built to win tournaments just like Germany used to be. 

Germany are competition machine. This is the last hurray for Joachim Lowe. He has been a huge winner for Germany and it could also be great goalkeeper Manuel Neuer's last tourney. They have some great players like Bayern Munich's Serge Gnarby and Joshua Kimmich. Rudiger, Hummels, Sule are key to their defence. Goretzka, Gundogan, Gnarby, Kimmich and Toni Kroos ensure a strong midfield. Upfront they are also spoilt for choices with Werner, Sane, Muller, Volland with youngsters Musiala (who has chosen Germany over England) and Florian Neuhaus. They are a reasonably strong candidate to win this tournament but I think there are stronger teams so possibly semis.

France are hot favorites having won the World Cup and runners up at the last Euro. They have so many players playing all across Europe. Their talents seem inexhaustible. Varane, Pavard, Digne, Kimpembe, Zouma provides them a solid base to operate from. Pogba, the great Kante, Rabiot are a midfield that could create and destroy. They also boast very rich attacking talents - Benzema, Mbappe, Griezmann, Coman, Lemar, Yedder, Giroud. Must be a firm favourite here. With a huge talent base and great strength in depth in their squad they are the hottest favourites. Often times, they too could self destruct with players of big ego. 

England are favourites probably because if they make it to the later stages they do have a strong chance as the semi-final and final will be held at Wembley. They surprised with 4th placing in the last World Cup. Firstly, Gareth Southgate has always been selecting players in form and not based on past reputation (dropping Rooney was a case in point) and he handled well. He has also been brave to pick young players and gradually blood them in. He has also involve a few veterans for the quality and experience. What he has also done was to play down the favourites tag which has haunted previous England teams for ages. The other reason for them to be favourites are real. They actually have some very good players and also excellent talents for the future. 

Nick Pope was unfortunate to be injured while playing for Burnley, he is to me the best goalie in the EPL for the last two seasons. You could easily deduce that Southgate will use the experience of Jordan Pickford who was very good at the World Cup. Pickford also has a huge goal-kick that could go very far and he distributes the ball rather well and quickly when needed. How England will play at the back may rest on Harry Maguire's fitness as he has been important at the last World Cup and for Manchester United despite some criticism. He is very good at set pieces and he could bring the ball out. If he is out they may use a back three. John Stones was magnificent for City in the second half of the season and is a ball playing centre back. Kyle Walker has the versatility to operate as right back or centre back playing in a back three. His pace is essential for their recovery works. Or Kieran Tripper has the experience and quality having just won the Spanish league with Athletico. No issue at left back where both Luke Shaw and Ben Chiwell were so outstanding for their clubs throughout the season. Even Reece James has a fine season.

Midfield will be crucial to England's progress. Jordan Henderson's leadership is important but though he seemed to have recovered from injury he has hardly featured in the leagues games towards the end part of the season but England are quite blessed with talents here with the likes of Mason Mount, Phil Foden and Kavin Phillips could do the Henderson job if called upon. Phillips is safe and reliable but Declan Rice is more dynamic and Bellingham is more talented. Foden was brilliant for City and just won the EPL Young Player of the Year! Mason Mount has throughout the season been starring for Chelsea with assists and goals including creating the winner to help his club claim the Champions League. Do not forget the young and talented Jude Bellingham who at 19 is already in the first team of Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga providing and scoring including in the Champions League.

Jack Grealish, the most fouled player in the league was outstanding but has just returned to action in the last few games of the season. He creates and scores and is the type of player who always wants the ball, excellent in tight spaces and one who always makes things happens. The kind who I like to watch and opponents hate like say Paul Gascoigne. He will make a big difference if fully fit. Grealish with the ball will draw 2 or 3 opponents thus creating space for his team mates to exploit. Arsenal's youngster Saka is an interesting addition to give the team something different. He scored in their 1-0 friendly win over Austria. His team mate Jadon Sancho has been one of the worlds' top young talents for some time now assisting and scoring freely in the German league and Champions League. Harry Kane is the EPL top scorer and with top assists too, Euro qualification top scorer and World Cup top scorer. This season he became the complete striker adding a repertoire with his excellent passing ability when dropping back. He could add a top scorer award here too. He must be in form for England to progress. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has a great season with Everton will be his back up. We all know what Raheem Sterling and Marcus Rashford can do. It was not Sterling or Rashford's best season and we know Southgate is faithful to his old warriors. It is crucial who he plays - Rashford and Sterling or Sancho and Grealish. Southgate could have reduced on e right back and bring in another striker or even Jesse Lingard who lighted up his season with West Ham. England can ease past the group stage but it gets tricky as they could face either France, Germany or Portugal. That is where the tournament may end for them. Gareth Southgate is safe and reliable. Ships in harbour are also safe and reliable but that is not what they are built for. Unless the use the SAS motto of "Who Dares Wins", England's hope may be dashed by the last 16. The expectations of a semi-final berth is more algorithm than reality. If they somehow progress further, they do have a better chance. But as always they need more guile. 

North Macedonia - Qualified from play off. I only know Alioski who plays for Leeds from this landlocked small country which means they are huge at least in spirit. They are the lowest ranked team but have beaten Israel, Kosovo, Latvia, Slovenia in qualification and even beaten Germany in a World Cup qualifier.

Finland will find it tough to get past Belgium, Denmark and Russia. Teemu Pukki of Norwich is their star player and top scorer. 

Hungary is in the toughest group of death. France, Portugal and Germany are in this group. They have to somehow pull off a shock win and hope the other three teams beat one another. 

Russia are not in great form. They have only recently lost to Turkey, Slovakia and even Serbia who did not even qualify. They may struggle against Belgium and Denmark. 

Slovakia scraped through and past Northern Ireland in a playoff and in extra time. They could not even beat Malta and Cyprus during their World Cup qualifiers. Their star player is Marek Hamsik who is already 33 and Inter Milan centre back Milan Skrinair. Hard for them to progress.

Switzerland performed well in the last Euro and World Cup reaching the last 16. They have injury problems and Xherdan Shaqiri mostly sits on the bench at Liverpool. Most of the Swiss players are in Europe's top leagues and are experienced. Italy may be too good for them so they need to overcome Turkey and Wales but the Swiss have in recent years shown great resilience. 

Wales qualified by scoring only ten goals in ten games and that could precisely be their problem. Their star player Gareth Bales is of course well known and is world class but his season on loan at Tottenham saw only sporadic brilliance. When he is good he is unstoppable but football is a team game. Can they surprise especially against Turkey and the Swiss? Wales shocked Belgium 3-1 in Euro 2016 Q-final but lost to Portugal 0-2 in the semi. Can they repeat it? 

Scotland have always been a robust team full of fighting spirit. They made it through playoff. Arsenal's Kieran Tierny and Liverpool's Andy Robertson are excellent fullbacks and Manchester United's Scott McTominay will provide some steel with Villa's John McGinn adding creativity while Southampton's Che Adams who switched from England is their main striker. Their lack of experience in big tournaments are against them. 

Czech Republic were a winner way back in 1976. They used to be very formidable. West Ham duo Tomas Soucek and Vladimir Coufal are fine players though. They have beaten England once during qualifier at home but lost badly in the return. So they need to overcome Croatia and Scotland to stand a chance.

Austria have an exciting team in recent years. David Alaba is versatile and outstanding while Sabitzer is their brilliant midfielder ad former West Ham striker Arnautovic is an aggressive forward but over reliance on Alaba is a weakness not a strength. 

Poland was remembered fondly in the 1974 World Cup. Since the last Euro they have lost key players to retirement but they have one of the world's best strikers if not the best in Robert Lewandowski who scored a record 48 goals for Bayern Munich at 32 years old. If the supplies comes to him, he will fired them into the next round. 

Ukraine must not be underestimated as they have beaten Portugal and even finished top of its group. Their manager is the former great striker Andriy Shevchenko. This means that they are capable of an upset. 

Denmark will be coming in with a solid defence. They only conceded six goals in qualification and still holding on to clean sheets after 3 WC qualifiers. At the opposite end they are weak in scoring. It is still possible for them to get past the group stage but no more. Their stars are Kasper Schmeichel and Christian Eriksen. 

Sweden will miss their old man maverick striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic who at 39 was still scoring goals for Milan. It will be tough for them to get through but the Swedes are not never easy to beat. 

Turkey reached the semis of Euro 2008 and the WC semi in 2002  . They have since maintained their quality and do have a good defence led by Soyuncu of Leicester and Demiral of Juventus. Upfront they have Yilmaz and Yazici who fired 36 goals between them and helped Lille win the French title ahead of PSG. This could be their strongest team ever and will be a strong dark horse. 

Group Stage

Turkey v Italy - Turkey have never beaten Italy after 11 meetings and only drawn 3 times. Opening matches are often cautious and maybe boring. 1-1.

Wales v Switzerland - In their 7 meetings, Wales won only twice and lost 5. 1-2.

Denmark v Finland - The Nordic countries have met 59 times with the Danish having won 38, the Finnish won 11 and they drew 10 times. Because Christian Eriksen can score from a free kick. 1-0.

Belgium v Russia - Belgium have never lost to Russia and in 2019 the they beat Russia home and away 3-1 and 4-1 respectively. 3-1.

England v Croatia - They have met 10 times with England having won 5, Croatia 3 and drew twice. England lost to Croatia 1-2 in the World Cup semi but drew 0-0 away and won 2-1 at home in the UEFA Nations League in 2018. Croatia have experienced hands (average age 28) and England a younger team (average age 24). If Jack Grealish and Jadon Sancho play. 2-1.

Scotland v Czech Rep - In the 9 games they have played, each won 4 matches and they drew once. In 2020 UEFA Nations League Scotland won both away and home 2-1 and 1-0. 1-1.

Austria v North Macedonia - Land of beautiful castles, palaces, baroque architecture and alpine villages versus land of beautiful mountains, lakes and ancient towns. What we have is the records of Austria's WC qualifiers - 2-2 away to Scotland, 3-1 win over Faroe Islands while N. Macedonia's first big tourney could be a big fairy tale. It already is. In their WC qualifiers they lost 3-2 away to Romania, thrashed Liechtenstein 5-0 and beaten Germany 2-1 away. A surprise may be in store? 1-1.

Netherlands v Ukraine - They have only met twice with the Dutch winning one the other being a draw but it was long ago. For WC qualifiers, the Dutch were defeated 2-4 away by Turkey, 2-0 home win over Latvia and a 7-0 thrashing away to Gibraltar. For Ukraine, they held France 1-1 away, were held 1-1 at home by Finland and were also held 1-1 by Kazakhstan. In a UEFA Nations League game, they have even beaten Spain 1-0. A tricky tie awaits the Dutch. 1-1.

Poland v Slovakia - Poland's record against Slovakia is 3W1D3L. The Poles were not that good in the UEFA Nations League and in the WC Qualifiers they drew 3-3 with Hungary, beaten Andorra 3-0 and lost to England 1-2. For the Slovaks, they were held 0-0 by Cyprus, drew 2-2- with Malta but beaten Russia 2-1. Poland to win because they have Lewandowski. 2-1.

Spain v Sweden - In the UEFA Nations League Spain lost to Ukraine 0-1 but thumped Germany 6-0. For the WC qualifiers, they were held 1-1 by Greece, beaten Georgia 2-1 and Kosovo 3-0. The pass master have been past master. Sweden's WC campaign were a 1-0 win over Georgia and 3-0 over Kosovo. Just about the same score against the same opponents as Spain. Spain's record v Sweden is 6W5D3L. Good suggestion Spain will not have their way. 1-1.

Hungary v Portugal - Portugal's record v Hungary is 9W4D0L. Hungary didn't do badly in the Nations League and for the WC qualifiers they held Poland 3-3, beaten San Marino 3-0 and Andorra 4-1. Portugal were good in the Nations League but though unbeaten in their WC qualifiers less impressive with a 1-0 win over Azerbaijan and 3-1 win over Luxembourg but held 2-2 by Serbia. Hungary may fancy their chance here but the Portuguese have many quality players and experience too by overawed but despite the presence of Ruben Dias they are conceding goals but upfront Ronaldo and Jota will more than compensate. 2-3.

France v Germany - They have played each many times. France's record v the Germans is 14W7D10L. France's form is quite impressive. They last lost a game in 2020 in a friendly to Finland. In their WC qualifiers they have beaten Kazakhstan 2-0. Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-0 and just beaten Wales in a friendly 3-0. The Germans have been patchy getting lots more draws than wins. For their WC campaign they have beaten Iceland 3-0 and Romania 1-0 but were shocked 1-2 by North Macedonia. Their close rivalry often see them playing to 0-0 draw or 1-0, 2-1 or 2-0 wins for either side. France to win because they have Kylian Mbappe. 1-0.

To Be Continued.....