Euro 2020 - Final

This is it! The Euro 2020 Final. It is the final countdown. England versus Italy. They have been truly the two best teams in this tournament not because they are in the final but with the way they have been playing. Which do you like? Fish and chips or spaghetti? Both will be deserving winners but we should probably hope that the game will not see any red cards (or two yellow) as this would change the the entire game. 11 v 11 will always be lovely. Preferably I would not like it to go into extra-time too and worse still penalty kicks. The best way to decide a winner is within 90 minutes in regulation time. We need to save some sleep too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw (The Final Countdown - Europe)

Italy are very formidable opponents and have been very impressive. They looked a bit rattled only once - versus Austria and a little against Spain. To have missed out qualification for the World Cup in Russia have hurt them mighty bad. The Azzurri are 33 matches unbeaten and to be beaten right here right now, it will have to take a mightier team to do so. The Italians won their one and only Euro back in 1968 on home soil when it was known as the European Championship back then.

England and their fans have been living in existence by just reliving their past glory and reduced to watching grainy footage of their one and only win - the 1966 World Cup at Wembley. How old were you back then? I suspect many were still not born. England have broken that curse that could never let them pass through a semi-final. The come back win over a brilliant Denmark was all about belief. That is the glorious and beautiful game called soccer we all love.

Raheem Sterling grew up just outside Wembley and now a whole nation rested on his dream and theirs.

Italy v Spain (Semi-Final) - Spain dominated Italy with 70% possession. Partly, it was a Spanish DNA to pass the ball to death but as I have said from the beginning, Spain's final third and finishing have to be questioned. 16 shots, 12 chances created with 3 big chances and it amounted to one goal. It was also Italy's plan to be patient and let Spain have the ball and despite it, in typical Italian style they scored first. 

Italy have everything. Good teamwork, a solid defence, their greatest strength is in their midfield where Brazil-born Jorginho has been outstanding. He may even be the Player of this tournament if Italy wins. Their forward line has goals in them. A 33-match unbeaten streak. Will the streak continues or will it end here?

England v Denmark (Semi-Final)

England were on the front foot and had an electric start but Damsgaard free-kick goal against the run of play silenced the Wembley crowd and England have never been behind before so how they respond will show you the character of the team. England eventually broke Denmark's incredible resistance especially the incredible Kasper Schmeichel who on many occasions kept them in the game. The game would not have made it into extra-time if not for him. He was almost perfect but he made only one mistake and that was before a ball was kicked. He mocked England on their slogan of "Football Coming Home" and said "has it ever been home? I don't know, have you ever won it?" I am going to tell our FAS too that "It's Coming Home". Just not sure if it is any Cup or just the team coming home - to roost.

Denmark were excellent and gave England a good game with tense moments. The Danes totally deserved respect in this tournament. The Danes are very good at many things. They have the world's largest shipping line, a toy maker whose name when translated means "play well" and its all about building blocks. They have famous Danish cookies. They have one of my favourite badminton players - Svend Pri who as it was reported long ago tragically took his own life at only 38. There were others like Flemming Delfs and Morten Frost. You can say I have a soft spot for them. Hey, my dad used to work for a Danish company long ago - the East Asiatic Company (EAC) which was once Denmark's crowned jewel and business conglomerate.

Denmark scored from a Damsgaard free-kick to end England's 726 minutes without conceding a goal and made England slog. Jordan Pickford set an all-time England record of not conceding a goal beating  a previous record by the legendary Gordon Banks' 720 minutes record.  Denmark's front three were very good and were a nuisance to the England defence but on the whole England were always on top.

Bukayo Saka became the youngest player to start a semi-final game for England and rightly justified his selection ahead of Phil Foden and Jadon Sancho as he was a livewire. When Foden replaced him at the later stage, he was weaving a bit of his own magic as he has done so often for City. England were resolute at the back and exciting going forward. When Grealish, Henderson and Foden came on, they put  a grip on the game and the more the game went on, you know that England were going to win as they dominated with 58% of the ball with xG (expected goals) of 2.84 to Denmark's 0.25. 20 shots to Denmark's 6, 15 chances created to 4. 

During extra-time, Denmark were absorbing all the punches. Raheem Sterling was once again the Player of the match as he tormented the Danish defence with his runs. It was also his dash past Denmark's defence that resulted in a penalty awarded amid some controversy but VAR ruled in favour and though Harry Kane's penalty shot was saved by Schmeichel, he reacted quickly and banged in the rebound. It was Kane's 4th goal in this Euro and has tied Gary Lineker's record of 10 goals for the most combined England goals - World Cups and European Championships. Sterling would have surely scored had Kjaer not knocked the ball into his own net. He was simply bloody good. Every defence should be petrified of him. He can squeeze through the smallest gap, consistently beat defenders with pace, strength and skill and hardly lost a ball even though he looked like losing it sometimes. 

Kane did his stuff brilliantly as he grew into the game and turned the match as he won free-kicks. Once he spun around to set up Sterling for a clear goal chance which Sterling hit onto Schmeichel and then he played an incredible ball through to Saka and created the equalizer. 

England now boast of a very good defence. The team has balance with the right mix of players. They are adapt in changing to a different system and they have goals in them in the forward line. No matter the result on Sunday, Southgate and his players  have already achieved what many managers, players and teams who came before them could not. Many previous teams tended to be cliquish. Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool and Arsenal players were club rivals who failed to immerse themselves in harmony when on international duty. I told you that England's strength in depth was a key weapon. Even Jose Mourinho said that it was a fantastic performance from England and a deserving winner.

Mason Mount was clever in finding space. He often played many clever and smart passes. Kyle Walker was absolutely brilliant. His performance was epic and he made so many recoveries throughout with his electrifying pace and at the end nullified Denmark's dangermen Maehle and Damsgaard. Harry Maguire was excellent and nearly scored but his header was saved. He also played the ball out of defence very well and won all headers and meticulous with his tackles. He was a very important player and he was huge and I am not referring to his size. Luke Shaw was yet again excellent defending and attacking. Someone coined a new nickname for him - Shawberto Carlos, named after Brazilian great Roberto Carlos who himself acknowledged that Shaw has been superb. 

England v Italy (Final)

The Managers

Italy and England who are in the final are really the two best sides in this competition. Excellent managers with superb players and are very well organized. Mancini and Southgate are quite similar in that they have not been the most successful club managers. Mancini knows the English game well as he was ex Manchester City manager and he has liberated his Italy team with an entertaining style. Italian football has been at its lowest ebb but now Mancini has completely turned them around. He has modernized Italy with his system of playing and England will have to be at their best to stand a chance against Mancini's side.

Southgate managed the England U-21 team for some years and all his players know him and trust him. Past England managers could not get their teams to be less cliquish as players were from rival clubs. This Euro semi-final was England's third time in a row from the World Cup, UEFA's Nations League before. So it is not a fluke but a plan with purpose and clear intent. Southgate has been astute, intelligent and in his own steady, quiet and soft-spoken ways brought his team to a major final for the first time in 55 years. 

This final will also see a tactical contest. Mancini favours a 4-3-3 but is not afraid to make changes. Against Austria he made 5 changes - 2 midfielders and 3 strikers to freshen things up and Chiesa who got on in the 84th minute got a goal and the other sub Pessina the other, a winner. He did the same against Belgium. He did the same as Austria when they defeated Spain. 

Southgate plays a 4-2-3-1 but switched to a 3-4-3 against Germany and since back to his 4-2-3-1. He has carefully chosen players at certain time-frame to come on to change the game. He brought on crowd favourite Jack Grealish in the 69th minute against Denmark but lasted 36 minutes and was taken off in an unusual move - to sub a sub after England led that saw Kieran Trippier coming on as they switched system to be more defensively solid as Denmark threw four men upfront. There was no tantrum from the star man. He may be gentlemanly and soft-spoken but he has shown that he will make the decisions that are needed, even nasty ones that will go down to him when it goes wrong. Now no one questions him why Jadon Sancho is not starting or playing more. Balls of steel. 

Italy

Italy have been playing in quite a free-spirited way with nothing to lose and boast of an amazing record of being unbeaten after 33 games. If they lose in the final, it will be their first defeat after what must have been years. They are powerful with pace on the breaks and will defend in numbers. In Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chielini, they have the most experienced pair of giant centre-backs in the competition despite being 34 and 36 years old, twice or nearly twice older than some players in the Euro. They toiled in extra-time against Austria in the round of 16, gave a lesson to Belgium on how to win a quarter-final and finally edge out Spain on penalties. Spain have actually pegged them down and they went back to a defensive shape, typically Italian so as to steal a goal. 

Before all these, they sailed past Turkey and the Swiss 3-0 and then beat Wales 1-0. Italy have scored 12 goals and conceded 3 till now with all 3 goals conceded in the KO rounds. So despite how strong their back line is they can be breached. Italy's midfield of Veratti, Jorginho and Berella would be a huge test for anyone. Their front men Chiesa, Immobile and Insigne are dangerous. Immobile could also irate with his antics like he looked immobilized (no pun intended) and then when his team scored, he jumped up and joined the celebration. 

Italy have been taking the lead in all these games and it shall be interesting to see them going behind and chasing the game. How will they respond as Italy have led in every match they have played in this Euro. History suggests an Italian win. Not just history but the current track record of 33 unbeaten games. I said from the beginning after watching Italy in the group stage that whoever is going to win this competition has to beat Italy. 

England

You must have noticed by now how England have adapted throughout the tournament. They have changed the system and approach game by game according to what was required at the time and also with certain players. A 1-0 win over Croatia, 0-0 against Scotland and then 1-0 over the Czech Republic. Southgate favours a 4-2-3-1 but switched to a 3-4-3 against the Germans to counter their marauding full backs. They did not concede a goal until Denmark and that was not from open play and allowed their opponents very few shots. They have scored 10 goals and have been patient and always in control. 

The midfield will be crucial. Italy may have the edge here. It also depends who England plays. Henderson could start. His experience as a big game player will be invaluable. He was there in the comeback win over Barcelona and was in two Champions League final but this would be a bold decision since Declan Rice and Kavin Philips have started in every match and you may not want to disrupt. As good as they have been they have not played in a major final and against players you would find here and you have to mark and stop Jorginho but England would likely play the same pair. Mason Mount would then be key with his clever movement and passes. It is likely Southgate keeps the same palyers.

England could cause trouble at the other end if they could get the ball over and let Sterling and Saka or Sancho cut in from the wings as they could make Bonucci and Chielini uncomfortable. They have been very good but this is a different kind of challenge. Austria had 16 shot and created 6 chances against Italy, Belgium 10 and 6 while Spain had a massive 16 shots and 12 chances. An early goal will be interesting as Italy have not gone behind before till now. At 34 and 36 respectively, they represent the combined experience of more than 200 caps and masters of defending and yet a weakness if England's young and quick players get through and around them. It will be their toughest test yet. Grealish and Sancho may yet play crucial parts when the need arises. Grealish's creativity and Sancho's wizardry. England have the slight edge in attack. If England wins, Raheem Sterling could be the Player of the tournament and he has a very important role here. Perhaps he already is.

Jordan Pickford will pick up the Golden Glove as he has already kept 5 clean sheets. Kyle Walker's pace is quite a sight to behold and Luke Shaw could be the best left back in this competition. He will play an important role with surging runs on the left and it is also easier for him to find the big head of Harry Maguire during set pieces. He is not nicknamed Slab head for nothing. Maguire has finally proven his leadership and ability. when the chances come, he could even get a goal. His partnership with John Stones have been impregnable. 

England winning it would be the icing on the cake but even if they don't they would be absolutely fine too as like the Italians they too have already exceeded expectations. I feel they should both enjoy the occasion and play good soccer.

Will "Sweet Caroline" be sung again? Where it began, I can't begin to knowing. But then I know it's growing strong. Was in the spring, And spring became the summer. Who'd have believed you'd come along. Hands, touching hands. Reaching out, touching me, touching you. Sweet Caroline. Good times never seemed so good. I've been inclined, To believe they never would. But now I ... Neil Diamond has been very proud and sent his congrats!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vhFnTjia_I (Sweet Caroline - Neil Diamond)

Conclusion

Both teams are so good that it is extremely difficult to hazard a guess and to pick the winner. When two excellent teams do battle, it will probably be a very tight, tense and surely gripping affair. Italy have scored 12 goals, England 10. England have conceded only 1 goal, Italy 3. Italy had 98 shots with 26 on target which was 26.53% while England had 50 shots with 21 on target which was 42%. They have almost the same passing accuracy of 89%. England have an average possession of 54.2% while Italy have 52.3%. England attempted 88 crosses with a 32.8% accuracy while Italy had 71 crosses with an accuracy of 28.2%. Italy have 99 dribbles, England 93. England won 33 tackles (62.3%) and Italy 21 (28.4%). All these matters little once the whistle is blown. 

Italy have gone into extra-time in two games with one into penalty kicks. I will assume that they will want to win this game in regulation time rather than extra-time. This also means they are a bit more knackered than England but England have 24 hours less rest so that almost equals out. When Irresistible Force meets Immovable Object and for a game this tight and inseparable between victor and victim extra-time is really quite possible or do you think it would end by regulation time? 

In any big game especially a final, you have to be spot on in every aspects - tactics, mental strength, physical fitness, your best form and even a moment of brilliance from an individual to change the game. The cruelty of sports as in life is one whereby nobody remembers the losing finalist. England World Cup hero and winner Sir Geoff Hurst has likened Gareth Southgate to Sir Alf Ramsey. Well, it is going to be Sir Gareth Southgate soon I am sure.

Cristiano Ronaldo may yet be the top scorer of this tournament though he is no longer here as he has 5 goals (including 3 penalty) and an assist while Czech Patrick Schick has 5 goals. Harry Kane is the closest as he has 4 goals but provided he scores 2 goals in the final to be the clear cut winner he will not be crowned even with one goal. Even if Kane gets a goal and an assist to level with Ronaldo, tournament rule applies that when two are level on goals and assists, the one who play lesser minutes wins. 

For those of you who has prayed for a chance to end 55 years of hurt, here it is. This is going to be a very stressful 90 minutes or so in 55 years for England fans. This Euro has been one of the best in recent memory. So is football coming Home or coming to Rome? Poetic. Before a ball was kicked, I have said that the Euro like the World Cup has a very important criteria that teams need. That is to be conditioned to peak at the right time. Italy have peaked very early. They found it hard to overcome Austria, played so well to beat Belgium and while Spain were the better team, Italy won. England seemed to be getting better. 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 in the group stage, raised their game in a huge win over Germany, mastered Ukraine with a big score then overcame a very good Denmark with a fantastic performance. It looks like they are peaking at the right time. 

There are times in life where the planets align. Raheem Sterling is not a planet but he is a star that has aligned firmly and certainly in the running for Player of this tournament. He has been mesmerizing and already equal the record of the highest number of dribbles in a single Euro match. He may be the most important player who could be the best player in this match. In fact, he has already been the best player. Sterling is like a super fly that will keep buzzing at the pizza no matter how you swat at it refuses to go away till it gets its prize. Kane is peaking really nicely and can have a big say but he will be up against his toughest opponents in Chiellini and Bonucci. Italy will probably control midfield but England's set piece play and their attacking talents from the bench (Phil Foden is doubtful due to a knock) plus their prowess down the flanks will power them and this is where England must target Emerson who replaces Spinazzola in the last match and is a weaker player than the one who he replaces. Bukayo Saka could trouble him. Luke Shaw and Sterling on the left will be the main threat as while Saka could cover well on the right, Kyle Walker is the recovery man due to his pace and may not venture too far out and Federico Chiesa is the Italian dangerman but Italy have been more reserved from the KO stages, not as free flowing but more safety first. Kane must find a way to draw out Chiellini and Bonucci so England can attack the space behind them.

The competition's two best defence and two best goalkeepers does not scream goals for me. Both teams will score as they have been scoring but do not expect a goal fest. It is possible to tie 1-1 at full-time and go into extra-time given how tight the game could be but I feel a one-goal winning margin within regulation time could be it. At 1-0 or 2-1. Home ground advantage can be good but will not be a major part of it as they did not help both Portugal and France in 2004 and 2016. The last time the host country won was way back in 1984 (France). 

For so many years, I usually do not pin my hope on England winning. Many of you are just bred on the English Premier League and for those my age it has been the case since we were children and  are a lot more familiar with the English players. If England could get the lead, Italy will open up and try to force their way back and from the bench, England will find an answer. This time I am picking England to win. 2-1.

No matter what is the outcome, the Euro has brought back some joy for us in these dark times of a pandemic. Who ever you support, whichever team wins. All the best and cheers! From 12 July, Singapore can play 5 a side when eating out. Hooray!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXw8CRapg7k (Queen - We Are The Champions)